“The odds on a Trump impeachment or a Nixon-style resignation are now quite high,” he said.
It will depend on what other information emerges from the Mueller investigation.
It would likely come by the spring of 2018, or whenever Republicans come to believe that Trump is jeopardizing their re-elections in 2018.” — DailyStar
In February, Lichtman reiterated his assertion with a caveat emphasizing the role of the special council. Given his leanings on the matter and his bold suggestive-predictive accuracy, I strongly suspect his assertions are based on asymmetric knowledge, especially due to the events that followed.
“The politics of it is really complicated,” Mr. Lichtman said. “I don’t think this is going to develop organically in Congress, and so the critical component has to come from the special counsel. One scenario in which the Republicans could act is if pressure built after the special counsel comes back in, say, June with something truly shocking like money laundering or obstruction of justice.” — Washington Times
Fast forwarding to April 9, the FBI raids the office of Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Given the disputed nature of the raid and the materials taken, it indicates something dramatic is looming. Of course, whatever that may be, it obviously has nothing to do with the supposed purpose of the special council. It’s a blatant fishing expedition.
If you’re unable to acquire the truth directly, you can often acquire it through proximity. When you analyze the proximity of the matter, it suggests that it’s a do or die situation for Trump. Perhaps, this is why Steve Bannon has suddenly reentered the spotlight, offering a defensive legal strategy or why former CIA director John Brennan said Trump’s “kakistocracy” is collapsing. However, I strongly suspect this is yet another “gotcha” moment that will not deliver.
There won’t be any evidence of Trump-Russia collusion because it simply does not exist but nevertheless, they’ll attempt to bring Trump down by any means necessary. The real question is whether or not this will yield any grounds for “obstruction of justice.” I highly doubt it, though. This simply isn’t going to be another Nixon-Clinton scenario despite all the gleeful fantasies of detractors. Instead, there will be fall out and disputes on both sides but Trump won’t be impeached.
In reality, the cultural and political trends that placed Trump in office are the same trends that will keep him in office. As the partisan nature of this coup is perpetually exposed, it will only reinforce public and political perception. This isn’t mere speculation, it’s already happening. Ironically, while time is often cited as a strength for this coup, it’s the opposite. The longer this goes on, the more perception shifts in favor of Trump. He doesn’t need to fire Rosenstein or Mueller.
In a recent C-Span poll, they asked “Who do you trust?” and the results were quite revealing. Likewise, another poll on the special counsel and Mueller demonstrates the same type of shift in perception.
If that were not enough, Trump’s approval ratings are improving and the Korean war is on the brink of ending, which would be a historic moment and further catalyze public perception in his favor. Of course, none of this means the special counsel won’t attempt to create a case for obstruction of justice but by that time, perception will have shifted further and more corruption will have been exposed. It’s possible if not probable that Trump will, in fact, survive this in time for the coup to be fully exposed.
It’s likely that Brennan, Comey, and McCabe will face the most legal trouble. Meanwhile, the role of James Clapper, Barack Obama, and others involved, such as particular holdovers, will mostly be swept under the rug.
In conclusion, I disagree with Lichtman. Lichtman has allowed his own bias to interfere with his ability to access the key factors and trends. This coup is going to be widely exposed and Trump will not be impeached.